Have the scare tactics of death penalty supporters come true?

In the late 1990s, fierce debates raged over the advisability of abolishing the death penalty. One of the arguments put forward by its proponents was that the number of murders would likely rise significantly after abolition, claiming that criminals would no longer fear execution and would therefore kill far more readily.
The foolishness and groundlessness of such predictions actually pointed to the fear of changes among short-sighted politicians, whilst the absurdity of these forecasts exposed an inability to adequately project the consequences of legislative changes.
What actually happened to the number of murders after the death penalty was abolished in December 1999? How far-sighted did the politicians who warned of a rise in murders turn out to be?

According to Ministry of Internal Affairs data (letter No. 16/2-235 dated 24 October 2013), between 4,529 and 4,896 intentional homicides were registered annually between 1996 and 2000.
In 2003, their number fell to 4,041; in 2006, to 3,220; and in 2012, there were only 2,356 (51% of the 1999 figure).

A more detailed breakdown of the dynamics (according to Ministry of Internal Affairs data) is provided below:

1994 – 4,571
1995 – 4,783
1996 – 4,896
1997 – 4,529
1998 – 4,563
1999 – 4,623
2000 – 4,806
2001 – 4,517
2002 – 4,296
2003 – 4,041
2004 – 3,788
2005 – 3,315
2006 – 3,220
2007 – 2,906
2008 – 2,707
2009 – 2,478
2010 – 2,356
2011 – 2,506
2012 (as of 20 November) – 2,100